US yields rise on strong growth expectations, not just inflation | MarketTalk
About this video
Oil prices and global yields continue to rise, putting pressure on equity valuations and supporting the US dollar. But beneath the move in US Treasuries, an interesting divergence is emerging. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate remains broadly stable around 2.3%, while real yields have risen sharply. This suggests that resilient US growth, increasingly hawkish Fed expectations and a higher real term premium – partly linked to heavy government borrowing – are playing an important role in pushing yields higher.
Meanwhile, the US yield curve continues to flatten as the 2-year yield rises faster than the 10-year, raising fresh questions about a potential inversion. Could stronger jobs and inflation data push Fed expectations even further? And at what point could aggressive tightening expectations become too much for the US dollar, economic growth and equity valuations?
Watch the full episode to find out more!
0:00 Intro
0:55 Market update
2:15 What do US yields tell us about market expectations?7
7:11 Eyes on US jobs/inflation data
8:05 What could slow the USD’s appreciation?
Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.
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